Cognitive Bias

Nearly everyone has been in a situation that required us to form a hypothesis or draw a conclusion to make a decision with limited information. This kind of decision-making crops up in ...

While we like to think of ourselves as highly rational and logical, the human brain is sometimes too optimistic for its own good. For example, in our personal lives, we may be ...

I’ve noticed something unusual lately. There seems to be an increase in the number of events people are declaring Black Swans and the ensuing philosophic tug-of-war of detractors saying they’re wrong. At ...

A well-studied phenomenon is that perceptions of probability vary greatly between people. You and I perceive the statement “high risk of an earthquake” quite differently. There are so many factors that influence ...

There’s a special kind of history re-writing going on right now among some financial analysts, risk managers, C-level leadership, politicians and anyone else responsible for forecasting and preparing for major business, societal ...