The Near Future of Conflict Will Not be About Oil but Microchips
Given the global shortage of ‘new’ oil, an upcoming energy drought and the geopolitical effects that could occur if there’s a decade-long recession in China, the near future of conflict will not be about oil but about microchips.
The Microchip
As the world shifts to new and more sustainable sources of energy, oil becomes less and less important as a resource. In fact, many experts believe that oil will no longer be a major factor in international conflict within the next few decades. Instead, they believe that the near future of conflict will revolve around microchips.
Microchips are tiny devices that can store and process large amounts of data. They are used in everything from mobile phones to computers to military weaponry. As our dependence on technology increases, so does our need for microchips.
The problem is that there is a limited supply of microchips. The leading manufacturers are in Asia—specifically in China and Taiwan. This means that the majority of the world’s microchips are controlled by a small number of countries.
As demand for microchips grows, so does the potential for conflict. If one country decides to restrict or cut off the supply of microchips to another, it could have devastating effects. Computers and other devices would become useless and military weaponry would be severely compromised.
The solution to this problem is unknown at this time, but it suggests that the near future conflict will not be about oil but about microchips.
How Microchips are Changing the World
As the world becomes increasingly digital, the competition for control of critical infrastructure is shifting from traditional battlefields to cyberspace. This is most clearly seen in the ongoing conflict between the United States and China over the South China Sea.
While the U.S. has been the dominant power in the past, China is rapidly catching up. It has made significant investments in developing its own microchips. These chips are used in a wide range of devices, from computers and smartphones to military hardware.
This rivalry is set to intensify in the coming years as both sides vie for control of key technology supply chains. While there is no easy solution, it is clear that the future of conflict will be increasingly shaped by developments in microchip technology.
What Countries Have the Capacity to Produce Microchips?
As the world increasingly moves toward digital technologies, microchips are becoming an increasingly important commodity. There are a limited number of countries that have the capability to produce these chips and, as such, they are likely to become an important factor in future conflicts.
The United States is currently the largest producer of microchips, with a market share of around 50%. Other major producers include Taiwan, South Korea and Japan. These four countries account for over 80% of global microchip production.
However, there is a growing trend of chip production moving to China. Chinese companies now account for around 15% of global production and this is expected to increase in the coming years. This shift could have major implications for future conflicts as China gains greater control over this crucial commodity.
Microchips are set to play an important role in the near future. Countries with the capacity to produce these chips are likely to be in a position of power, which could lead to tensions and conflict between nations.
The Future of Conflict
When we think about future conflicts, it’s easy to default to images of tank battles and military jets dogfighting in the skies. But the future of conflict is likely to be very different. The near future of conflict will not be about oil but about microchips.
The world is increasingly reliant on technology and that trend will only continue. In 2010 (12 years ago), a team of researchers from the University of Toronto estimated that the world economy was already “at least partially dependent” on computers to function. This dependence will only grow as computers become more sophisticated and embedded into our everyday lives.
This reliance on technology creates a vulnerability that can be exploited by those who understand how to do so. We’ve already seen this happen with cyberattacks like the Stuxnet virus, which was used to disable Iranian nuclear centrifuges and the WannaCry ransomware attack which crippled hospitals worldwide. As our societies become more reliant on technology, we will become more vulnerable to these kinds of attacks.
Weapons are not the only things that computer systems will control in the future–entire countries could be brought to their knees by hackers. In 2017, Ukraine was hit by a cyberattack that took down its power grid, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without electricity in the middle of winter. While this may sound like something out of a science fiction movie, it’s very real!
Oil Wars Today, Microchip Wars Tomorrow
In recent years, the world has seen a shift in how conflicts play out. Whereas wars in the past were often fought over natural resources like oil, today’s wars are more likely to be fought over control of manmade resources like microchips.
This is not to say that oil is no longer important. Oil remains a vital resource for many countries and companies and will continue to be a major factor in international relations. However, the importance of microchips is rapidly increasing, and future wars will likely be fought over the control of these critical components.
Microchips are essential for a variety of modern technologies, from computers and smartphones to automobiles and aircraft. They are also becoming increasingly important in military applications as they allow for the development of more sophisticated weapons and communications systems.
As the demand for microchips continues to grow, there will be an increasing incentive for companies and countries to control as much of the global supply as possible. This could lead to conflict between those who want to maintain access to affordable chips and those who want to monopolize the market.
In some ways, the battle over chips is already being fought. For example, the U.S. government has accused China of stealing intellectual property related to chip technology, and this issue is likely to continue to cause tension between the two countries.
It is also worth noting that microchips are not the only technology that will be important in future conflicts. Other emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and 3D printing, will also likely play a role in future wars.
Conclusion
Conflict in the future will not be about oil but about microchips. This is because microchips are becoming more and more essential to the functioning of society and are thus increasingly valuable. Therefore, countries will fight over who controls the production of microchips and the technology needed to produce them. This will be a new kind of conflict, fought not with guns and tanks but with computers and cyberattackers.
